Battle of Bakhmut

An apartment block in Bakhmut after a Russian shelling. The city has been under shelling since May 2022.^[19]

Bakhmut, formerly known as Artemivsk, was the site of the 2014 battle of Artemivsk between Ukraine and the self-declared separatist Donetsk People's Republic. Pro-Russian separatists had captured parts of the city during the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine in April, and a Ukrainian special forces unit together with the National Guard were dispatched to expel the separatists from the city. The separatists were expelled to the city's outskirts where clashes continued until July 2014, when they finally retreated from the area.^[20]

During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, a key Russian goal was to capture the Donbas region, consisting of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The initial push for Bakhmut was part of an attempt to encircle the Ukrainian forces at the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk salient; together with another push from the Lyman direction, it would create a pocket and trap Ukrainian forces there.^[21] Starting on 17 May, Russian forces began shelling Bakhmut, killing five people including a two-year-old child.^[22][23]

After the fall of Popasna on 22 May, Ukrainian forces withdrew away from the city to reinforce positions at Bakhmut.^[11] Meanwhile, Russian forces managed to advance on the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, endangering the remaining Ukrainian troops in the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk area.^[24][25] The Russian checkpoint along the highway was later demolished, although fighting resumed on 30 May along the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway, where Ukrainian forces successfully defended the highway.^[26][27]

Shelling of Bakhmut continued throughout the rest of June and July, escalating after the battle of Siversk began on 3 July.^[28] Following the battles of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in early July, Russian and separatist forces captured all of Luhansk oblast, and the battlefield shifted towards the cities of Bakhmut, and Soledar. On 25 July, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirska Power Station, along with the nearby town of Novoluhanske, giving Russian and separatist forces a "small tactical advantage" towards Bakhmut.^[29] Two days later on 27 July, Russian shelling of Bakhmut killed three civilians and wounded three more.^[30]

Prior to the battle in Bakhmut, Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy claimed that Russia held a five-to-one manpower advantage over Ukraine along the eastern front.^[31]

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Battle of Donbas (2022–present)

Battle of Donbas (2022–present)

The Battle of Donbas is an ongoing military offensive that is part of the wider eastern Ukraine campaign of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The battle began on 18 April 2022 between the armed forces of Russia and Ukraine for control of the Donbas provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk. Military analysts consider the battle to be part of the second strategic phase of the invasion.

Bakhmut

Bakhmut

Bakhmut, formerly known as Artemivsk or Artyomovsk, is a city in eastern Ukraine. It serves as the administrative center of Bakhmut Raion in Donetsk Oblast. It is located on the Bakhmutka River, about 89 kilometres (55 mi) north of Donetsk, the administrative center of the oblast. Bakhmut was designated a city of regional significance until 2020 when the designation was abolished. Population: 71,094.

Battle of Artemivsk

Battle of Artemivsk

The Battle of Artemivsk was a 2014 battle fought in the city of Artemivsk during the war in Donbas in eastern Ukraine as part of the wider Russo-Ukrainian War. It involved armed confrontation between the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine and pro-Russian militias representing the Donetsk People’s Republic.

Donetsk People's Republic

Donetsk People's Republic

The Donetsk People's Republic is an unrecognised republic of Russia in the occupied parts of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, with its capital in Donetsk. The DPR was created by militarily-armed Russian-backed separatists in 2014, and it initially operated as a breakaway state until it was annexed by Russia in 2022.

2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine

2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine

From the end of February 2014, demonstrations by pro-Russian and anti-government groups took place in major cities across the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine in the aftermath of the Revolution of Dignity, which resulted in the success of Euromaidan in ousting then-President Viktor Yanukovych. The unrest, supported by Russia in the early stages of the Russo-Ukrainian War, has been referred to in Russia as the "Russian Spring".

Donbas

Donbas

The Donbas or Donbass is a historical, cultural, and economic region in eastern Ukraine. Parts of the Donbas are occupied by Russia as a result of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Donetsk Oblast

Donetsk Oblast

Donetsk Oblast, also referred to as Donechchyna (Донеччина), is an oblast in eastern Ukraine. It is Ukraine's most populous province, with around 4.1 million residents. Its administrative centre is Donetsk, though due to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, the regional administration was moved to Kramatorsk. Historically, the region has been an important part of the Donbas region. From its creation in 1938 until November 1961, it bore the name Stalino Oblast as Donetsk was then named "Stalino", in honour of Joseph Stalin. As part of the de-Stalinization process, it was renamed after the Siversky Donets river, the main artery of Eastern Ukraine. Its population is estimated as 4,100,280

Luhansk Oblast

Luhansk Oblast

Luhansk Oblast, also referred to as Luhanshchyna (Луга́нщина), is the easternmost oblast (province) of Ukraine. The oblast's administrative center is Luhansk. The oblast was established in 1938 and bore the name Voroshilovgrad Oblast in honor of Kliment Voroshilov. Its population is estimated as 2,102,921

Lyman, Ukraine

Lyman, Ukraine

Lyman, formerly Krasnyi Lyman from 1925 to 2016, is a city in the Donetsk region of Ukraine. Administratively, it is incorporated as a city of oblast significance. Until 2016, it also served as the administrative center of Lyman Raion, though it was not a part of the raion. It still serves as the center of Lyman hromada. The population was 20,066 down from 28,172 in 2001. In October 2022, following the two Battles of Lyman of the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the population was estimated to be approximately 5,000.

Battle of Popasna

Battle of Popasna

The battle of Popasna was a military engagement between joint Russian-LPR forces and Ukrainian forces in the city of Popasna in the Luhansk Oblast.

Kostiantynivka

Kostiantynivka

Kostiantynivka is an industrial city in the Donetsk Oblast (province) of eastern Ukraine, on the Kryvyi Torets river. Administratively, it is incorporated as a city of oblast significance. It also serves as the administrative center of Kostiantynivka Raion (district), though it does not belong to it. It's also known as Kostyantynivka or Konstantinovka. It developed in the Soviet era into a major centre for the production of iron, zinc, steel and glass. Its population is approximately 67,350 .

Battle of Siversk

Battle of Siversk

The Battle of Siversk was a military engagement during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as part of the battle of Donbas of the wider eastern Ukraine offensive, that began on 3 July 2022. Russian forces ceased launching assaults on and around Siversk on 28 July.

Early shelling and Russian encroachment (August–October 2022)

On 1 August, Russian forces launched massive ground attacks on settlements south and southeast of Bakhmut. Both the Russian Ministry of Defense and pro-Russian Telegram pages claimed that the battle of Bakhmut had begun.^[32][33] The following day, Ukraine reported that Russian forces had increased airstrikes and shelling of Bakhmut, beginning a ground attack on the southeastern part of the city.^[34] On 4 August, Wagner Group mercenaries managed to break through Ukrainian defenses and reach Patrice Lumumba street on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.^[35] In the following days, Russian forces continued to push towards Bakhmut from the south, with the Ukrainian general staff stating on 14 August that Russian forces had achieved "partial success" near Bakhmut, but offering no specifics.^[36]

Night shelling in the city center on 21 September burned the Martynov Palace of Culture, where the humanitarian headquarters worked. During the extinguishing of the fire, the local fire department was shelled, which reported that two SES staff were injured and equipment damaged.^[37] At night, a five-story building was partially destroyed by Russian shelling.^[38][39] A Russian missile strike on 22 September destroyed the main bridge across the Bakhmutka river that bisects the city, disrupting both civilian travel and Ukrainian military logistics.^[40]

On 7 October, Russian forces advanced into the villages of Zaitseve and Opytne on the southern and southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut, while on 10 October, the UK Defence Ministry claimed that Russian troops advanced closer to Bakhmut.^[41][42] On 12 October, Russian forces claimed to have captured Opytne, located 3 km south of Bakhmut, and Ivanhrad, although these towns were still contested.^[43] Ukrainian sources said a minor counteroffensive on 24 October pushed Russian forces from some factories on the eastern outskirts of the city, along Patrice Lumumba street.^[44]

Winter escalation (November–December 2022)

A Ukrainian trench during the battle, November 2022

A Ukrainian soldier in a trench near Bakhmut, November 2022

By early November, much of the fighting around Bakhmut had descended into trench warfare conditions, with neither side making any significant breakthroughs and hundreds of casualties reported daily amid fierce shelling and artillery duels.^[45][16] On 1 November, Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov described the evolving nature of the battle in an interview. Butusov noted that Russian forces had suffered "huge losses every day" assaulting Bakhmut and its outskirts since early May, but insisted that they were adapting their tactics against increasingly exhausted Ukrainian defenders. He noted that the Russians were concentrating multiple small groups of infantry to break defense lines on "narrow" sections of the front.^[46]

Russian forces breached defense lines along Bakhmut's southern flank, capturing the villages of Andriivka, Ozarianivka, and Zelenopillia, and making minor advances in Opytne through 28–29 November.^[47][48] Wagner troops attacked Kurdyumivka, adjacent to Ozarianivka, with some Russian milbloggers claiming the settlement was captured.^[49] Russian forces also attacked Ukrainian positions southeast of Bakhmut.^[50][51] On 3 December, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Command, described the Bakhmut front as "the most bloody, cruel and brutal sector ... in the Russian-Ukrainian war so far", adding that the Russians had conducted 261 artillery attacks in the past day alone.^[52]

The same day, a Georgia military volunteer told the media that a group of Georgian volunteers had been surrounded during clashes near Bakhmut. The commander was wounded and five or six volunteers, serving in Ukraine's 57th Brigade, had been killed, prompting Georgian president Salome Zourabichvili to express condolences.^[53] On 6–7 December, the Russian defense ministry claimed that their forces, including Wagner fighters, had successfully repelled Ukrainian counterattacks south of Bakhmut.^[54] The commander of the Ukraine National Guard's Svoboda Battalion, defending Bakhmut's southern flank, said they were "fighting for every bush" and predicted Russia would struggle to overcome a canal above and behind Kudriumivka.^[55]

On 9 December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of "destroying" Bakhmut, calling it "another Donbas city that the Russian army turned into burnt ruins". Former soldier and eyewitness to the battle Petro Stone called the Bakhmut front a "meat grinder", saying the Russians were "covering Bakhmut with fire 24/7".^[56] Soldiers of Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade recounted recent battlefield engagements to media, such as one multi-day firefight with 50 Russian troops dug into a treeline where in some places "we were only 100 metres apart". Ukrainian soldiers claimed that front line Russian troops often attacked with little tank support, with Wagner PMC fighters serving as the main assault troops and under-equipped mobiks (recently mobilized Russian recruits) holding defensive positions. One Ukrainian artillerymen alleged that "80 percent" of the remaining civilian population, surviving in basements and supplied by mobile grocery trucks that periodically enter the city, was pro-Russian.^[57][58]

A 9K22 Tunguska of Ukraine's 30th Mechanized Brigade Anti-Air Battalion in the vicinity of Bakhmut

On 11–13 December, Russian sources claimed that Wagner fighters had breached defenses in east Bakhmut, occupying the northern section of Fyodor Maksimenko Street in Zabakhmutka district^[55] and having advanced along Patrice Lumumba street in the industrial zone, fully capturing the Siniat ALC factory and sparkling wine/"artwinery" plant. On the outskirts, Wagner also purportedly stormed Pidhorodne, located on Bakhmut's northeastern flank, and made minor advances amid heavy fighting in Opytne, on the southern approach to Bakhmut.^[59][60] The claims of Russian advances were not independently verified at the time, but the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed clashes in Bakhmutske, Soledar, and Pidhorodne, though it claimed it repelled all assaults. On 11 December a railway bridge over the E40 (M-03) highway north of Bakhmut was destroyed; the Russians accused the Ukrainians of demolishing it to hamper future Russian advances towards Sloviansk.^[61][62][63]

Around the same time, rumours emerged that the 93rd Mechanized Brigade was going to be rotated out of Bakhmut due the high casualties. Ukrainian high command did not confirm nor deny the rumours but clarified that there were planned rotations, replacement and redeployment of units to other fronts.^[64]

On 13 December, Russian sources claimed that proper urban street fighting had begun in the eastern and southeastern sectors of Bakhmut, particularly along Pershotravnevyy avenue up to Dobroliubova street in Zabakhmutka, while also claiming that 90% of Opytne had been captured amid fierce Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainian General Staff said they successfully repelled assaults northeast and south of Bakhmut from the Soledar and Kurdiumivka directions, respectively.^{[65][66][67][68][69]} On 17 December, footage emerged online of trenches in Bakhmut's city center, indicating Ukrainian defenders were preparing for urban combat.^[70]

On 18–19 December, Ukrainian forces, purportedly including dismounted infantry supported by British-donated Wolfhound Tactical Supply Vehicles, counterattacked along Fyodor Maksimenko Street and pushed Wagner forces back to the eastern outskirts of the suburban area amid "grinding" street clashes. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Joint Forces Task Force reported repelling "five to seven" Russian infiltration groups near Bakhmut daily.^[71][72] A Ukrainian commander reported that an abundance of drone surveillance allowed for quick responses to small Russian assaults on the outskirts, while also alleging that Russia did not control Bakhmut's eastern industrial zone. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Western think tank and war observer, could not independently verify the claim of Ukraine entirely controlling the outskirts at the time.^[73]

On 20–21 December, President Zelenskyy made an unannounced visit to the Bakhmut front, where he met with soldiers, awarded medals and delivered speeches.^[74] Meanwhile, heavy shelling and fighting on Bakhmut's outskirts^[73][75] continued as Russian forces continuously attempted to break entrenched Ukrainian positions on the city's flanks. Reportedly, Wagner fighters were assaulting strongholds in Bakhmutske, Pidhorodne, and Klishciivka, located along Bakhmut's northeastern and southwestern flanks respectively, while the Ukrainians continued to hold northern Opytne, blunting Russia's advance from the south.^[76]

On 26 December, Ukraine's governor of Donetsk, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said over 60 percent of Bakhmut's infrastructure was damaged or destroyed.^[77] The ISW judged that Russia's advance on Bakhmut had "culminated" by 28 December, assessing that Russian and Wagner forces had grown increasingly unable to sustain the previous scale of infantry assaults and artillery barrages.^[78] By early January 2023, the pace of fighting and rate of artillery fire in the Bakhmut sector had significantly decreased, and The Kyiv Independent remarked that the battle was "near culmination".^[79]

Continued offensives (January 2023 – present)

View of Bakhmut in February 2023

Ruined residential area in Bakhmut, March 2023

Following a local offensive in early January 2023, Russian forces captured the nearby town of Soledar, located 20 kilometres (12 mi) north of Bakhmut, by 16 January 2023.^[80] In its 7 January assessment, the ISW had considered the capture of Soledar as helping Russian forces to advance on Bakhmut from the north, although they claimed that Russian troops would need to cut off the T0513 highway between Siversk and Bakhmut to strangle Ukrainian supply lines to Bakhmut.^[81]

In February, Russian forces solidified gains north of Bakhmut and began pressuring Ukrainian troops on the northern front, making incremental gains in the towns north of the city.^[82] On 1 February, The New York Times reported that Russians had increased the intensity of attacks on Bakhmut and its surrounding areas.^[83] Days later on 5 February, the British Ministry of Defence stated that Russian troops were able to fire upon the M03 and H32 roads north of the city, the main Ukrainian supply route for northern Bakhmut.^[84] On 11 February, Russian forces captured the village of Krasna Hora northeast of Bakhmut.^[85] Around this time, analysts suggested Russian losses had increased to 820 casualties a day between Bakhmut and the battle of Vuhledar.^[86] By 13 February, the Ukrainian government claimed their defenses in the village of Paraskoviivka were waning, with fierce battles around the clock.^[87][88] By 22 February, Russian forces encircled Bakhmut from the east, south, and north.^[89]

By 3 March, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed two key bridges, creating the possibility for a controlled fighting withdrawal.^[90] On 4 March, Bakhmut's deputy mayor told news services that there was street fighting but that Russian forces had not taken control of the city.^[91][92] On 4 March, the chief of the Wagner Group said that the city was encircled except for one road still controlled by the Ukrainian military, as had been the case since 22 February.^[93] On 5 March Ukrainian commander Olexandr Syrsky said the fighting had reached the "highest level of tension".^[94]

On 7 March, Ukraine partially withdrew from Bakhmut up to the Bakhmutka river.^[95][96] Following this, the Wagner Group claimed to have captured eastern Bakhmut.^[97][98][99]

On 11 March, the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence said that: "In the city centre, the Bakhmutka River now marks the front line", with Wagner units taking the lead in fighting. Both sides have claimed to have killed and wounded "hundreds" of the other side's soldiers. The river has become a "killing zone" for Wagner units while at the same time Ukrainian forces are at risk of being cut off.^[100]

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Patrice Lumumba

Patrice Lumumba

Patrice Émery Lumumba, born Isaïe Tasumbu Tawosa, was a Congolese politician and independence leader who served as the first prime minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo from June until September 1960, following the May 1960 election. He was the leader of the Congolese National Movement (MNC) from 1958 until his execution in January 1961. Ideologically an African nationalist and pan-Africanist, he played a significant role in the transformation of the Congo from a colony of Belgium into an independent republic.

Bakhmutka

Bakhmutka

The Bakhmutka is a river in the Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine; a right tributary of the Siverskyi Donets.

Opytne, Bakhmut Raion

Opytne, Bakhmut Raion

Opytne is a rural settlement in Bakhmut Raion (district) in Donetsk Oblast of eastern Ukraine, at 64.7 km NNE from the centre of Donetsk city. Since October 2022, it would be under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

Ivanhrad

Ivanhrad

Ivanhrad is a village in Bakhmut Raion (district) in Donetsk Oblast of eastern Ukraine, at about 65.3 kilometres (40.6 mi) north-northeast (NNE) from the centre of Donetsk city, on the southern border of Bakhmut. It belongs to Bakhmut urban hromada, one of the hromadas of Ukraine.

Operational Command East

Operational Command East

Operational Command East is a formation of the Ukrainian Ground Forces in eastern Ukraine. Its headquarters is currently located in Dnipro.

Georgian Legion (Ukraine)

Georgian Legion (Ukraine)

The Georgian National Legion or Georgian Legion is a military unit formed by mostly ethnic Georgian volunteers fighting on the side of Ukraine in the war in Donbas and the Russo-Ukrainian War. The unit was organized in 2014, and in 2016 it was made part of the Ukrainian Army, under the 25th Mechanized Infantry Battalion "Kyiv Rus".

57th Motorized Brigade (Ukraine)

57th Motorized Brigade (Ukraine)

The 57th Otaman Kost Hordiienko Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade is a formation of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. The brigade was formed beginning in November 2014 in the city of Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast. Initially the brigade consisted of three volunteer territorial defence battalions. Already by summer 2015 the brigade deployed to fight in the war in Donbas. The ground forces plan to mechanize the brigade in the future.

National Guard of Ukraine

National Guard of Ukraine

The National Guard of Ukraine is the Ukrainian national gendarmerie and internal military force. It is part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, responsible for public security. Originally created as an agency under the direct control of the Verkhovna Rada on 4 November 1991, following Ukrainian independence, it was later disbanded and merged into the Internal Troops of Ukraine in 2000 by then-President Leonid Kuchma as part of a "cost-saving" scheme. Following the 2014 Revolution of Dignity, amidst the Russian intervention, the National Guard was re-established, and the Internal Troops were disbanded.

24th Mechanized Brigade (Ukraine)

24th Mechanized Brigade (Ukraine)

The 24th Mechanized Brigade is a mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, based at Yavoriv in the west of Ukraine.

2K22 Tunguska

2K22 Tunguska

The 2K22 Tunguska is a Soviet and now Russian tracked self-propelled anti-aircraft weapon armed with a surface-to-air gun and missile system. It is designed to provide day and night protection for infantry and tank regiments against low-flying aircraft, helicopters, and cruise missiles in all weather conditions. The NATO reporting name for the missile used by the weapon system is SA-19 "Grison".

30th Mechanized Brigade (Ukraine)

30th Mechanized Brigade (Ukraine)

The 30th Prince Konstanty Ostrogski Mechanized Brigade is a formation of the Ukrainian Ground Forces. The full name of the unit is 30th Independent Mechanized Brigade "Konstanty Ostrogski".

Bakhmutske

Bakhmutske

Bakhmutske is a village in Bakhmut Raion (district) in Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine, located about 83.3 kilometres (51.8 mi) north-northeast from the centre of the city of Donetsk. It belongs to Soledar urban hromada, one of the hromadas of Ukraine. It has been occupied by Russia since December 2022.

Due to the fog of war and deliberately unpublished casualty figures from both sides, the true number of military and civilian casualties due to the battle is unknown, although casualties are presumed to be heavy. Media outlets estimated hundreds of civilians and military from both sides killed and wounded each day amid battlefield conditions reminiscent of the First and Second World Wars.^[101]

Military casualties

On 10 November, the Ukrainians claimed that the Wagner Group had suffered nearly 140 casualties in the last 24 hours, including over 40 men killed, in fighting near Bakhmut.^[102] In early December the Ukrainian government estimated that 50–100 Russian soldiers were killed in the Bakhmut sector each day.^[103] Some Ukrainian commanders estimated that Russia suffered 100–300 casualties in Bakhmut alone on some days.^[104] On 22 December, John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, said that United States intelligence had indicated that about 1,000 Wagner fighters had been killed near Bakhmut in recent weeks.^[105] On 25 December, the Ukrainian military claimed Russia had lost 140 killed and 180 wounded on the Bakhmut front in the previous two days.^[106][107]

In early January 2023, a soldier of the Ukrainian National Guard claimed in an interview to UNIAN that Wagner suffered an almost 80% casualty rate in attacks as the wounded are not rescued and are left to die.^[108] The Ukrainian military claimed 277 Russian soldiers were killed and 258 were injured on 31 January alone.^[109] On 1 February, the Associated Press reported that the Wagner Group had had more than 4,100 of its soldiers killed and an additional 10,000 wounded, with 1,000 dead in late November and early December 2022 near Bakhmut, according to the ISW.^[110]

On 27 November, The New York Times reported a high level of casualties for both armies, also placing the number of Ukrainian wounded at 290 in the previous 36 hours.^[111] On 29 December, Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksii Arestovych said Ukraine was suffering "serious losses" along the Soledar–Bakhmut front, but claimed Russia was suffering even higher casualties.^[112][113] The New York Times reported that Ukraine could be sustaining hundreds of casualties on the Bakhmut front each day.^[114]

On 5 March, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov claimed Russian losses were 500 wounded and killed every day.^[115]

On 9 March the BBC, quoting Western officials, estimated between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the fighting around Bakhmut.^[116]

The casualty ratio was estimated to be 5 Russian soldiers killed for every Ukrainian soldier according to NATO. Ukraine claims the ratio is 7 to 1 killed in favour of Ukrainian soldiers. There are reports of the ratio changing in favour of the Russian forces since then.^[117]

On 13 March Russia claimed it had killed 220 Ukrainian soldiers in the last 24 hours, whereas Zelensky said 1100 Russians had been killed in the last few days.^[118]

Civilian casualties

On 5 November, the deputy mayor of Bakhmut claimed that over 120 civilians had been killed in the city proper.^[119] In early December, only between 7,000 and 15,000 of Bakhmut's prewar population of 80,000 remained in the city.^[120][121] On 16 December, three civilians were wounded by shelling.^[122] By 13 January 2023, shelling in Bakhmut had killed at least an additional 22 civilians and wounded 72 since early December.^[123] Since 13 January, Russian attacks in Bakhmut have killed at least three more civilians.^[124][125]

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Fog of war

Fog of war

The fog of war is the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations. The term seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding one's own capability, adversary capability, and adversary intent during an engagement, operation, or campaign. Military forces try to reduce the fog of war through military intelligence and friendly force tracking systems.

John Kirby (admiral)

John Kirby (admiral)

John Francis Kirby is a retired rear admiral in the United States Navy serving as Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council in the White House since late May 2022. He previously served as Pentagon Press Secretary for the first year and a half of the Biden Administration, and worked as a military and diplomatic analyst for CNN from 2017 to 2021. He served in the Obama administration as the spokesperson for the United States Department of State from 2015 to 2017.

Wagner Group

Wagner Group

The Wagner Group, also known as PMC Wagner, is a Russian paramilitary organization. It is variously described as a private military company (PMC), a network of mercenaries, or a de facto private army of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The group operates beyond the law in Russia, where private military contractors are officially forbidden. While the Wagner Group itself is not ideologically driven, various elements of Wagner have been linked to neo-Nazism and far-right extremism.

The New York Times

The New York Times

The New York Times, also referred to as the Gray Lady, is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2022 to comprise 740,000 paid print subscribers, and 8.6 million paid digital subscribers. It also is a producer of popular podcasts such as The Daily. Founded in 1851, it is published by The New York Times Company. The Times has won 132 Pulitzer Prizes, the most of any newspaper, and has long been regarded as a national "newspaper of record". For print, it is ranked 18th in the world by circulation and 3rd in the United States. The newspaper is headquartered at The New York Times Building in Times Square, Manhattan.

Oleksii Arestovych

Oleksii Arestovych

Oleksii Mykolaiovych Arestovych is a Ukrainian intelligence officer, blogger, actor, political and military columnist, and propagandist. He was a speaker of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine. He worked as a Strategic Communications Advisor of the Office of the President of Ukraine from December 2020 to January 2023.

Oleksii Reznikov

Oleksii Reznikov

Oleksii Yuriyovych Reznikov is a Ukrainian lawyer and politician who has served as the Minister of Defence of Ukraine since 4 November 2021. Reznikov previously has served in several other positions in the government of Ukraine; Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine, deputy head of the Kyiv City State Administration from 2016 to 2018, and deputy mayor-secretary of the Kyiv City Council from June 2014 to December 2015.

Battlefield conditions

A Ukrainian soldier standing on guard in the vicinity of Bakhmut

The battle of Bakhmut has been described as one of the bloodiest battles of the 21st century, with the battlefield being described as a "meat grinder" and a "vortex" for both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries.^[126][127] With extremely high casualties, costly ground assaults with very little ground gained, and shell-pocked landscapes, volunteers, media, and government officials alike compared fighting in Bakhmut to battlefield conditions on the western front of World War I.^[128][129]

Retired U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Andrew Milburn, the leader of a foreign volunteer group in Ukraine called the Mozart Group and an eyewitness to the battle, compared conditions in the Bakhmut countryside to Passchendaele and the city itself to Dresden in World War II.^[130] On 11 January 2023, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak described the fighting ongoing at Bakhmut and Soledar as the bloodiest since the start of the invasion.^[131]

On 8 March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the Ukrainians may be defeated in Bakhmut within the coming days.^[132]

On 22 March, UK MoD defence update said that "There is a realistic possibility that the Russian assault on the town (Bakhmut) is losing the limited momentum it had achieved, in part because some Russian Ministry of Defense units have been redeployed to other sectors."^[133]

On 25 March, Lt. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, wrote on Facebook that the war "is the toughest in the Bakhmut direction... due to the tremendous efforts of the defence forces, we are managing to stabilise the situation".^[134]

Personnel and tactics

Russian assault forces have primarily composed of Wagner Group mercenary contractors and ex-convicts, reinforcements from other front lines in Ukraine, and newly mobilized recruits the Ukrainians refer to as mobiks.^[58] Reportedly, Wagner's forces have consisted of a majority of recruited, under-trained ex-convicts and a minority of well-trained contractors serving as group commanders that operate efficiently and encrypt radio communications.^[55] Some observers likened Russian tactics to Soviet-style human wave attacks, repeatedly assaulting Ukrainian positions with waves of infantry.^[58][135] Some Ukrainian soldiers alleged that Wagner used its recruited ex-convicts as first wave "human bait" to reveal Ukrainian positions, with those refusing to advance being threatened with "execution" by firing squads or barrier troops^{[136][137][135]} and those who were wounded in the assaults were usually not rescued.^[108]

Russia has targeted Bakhmut with Iranian made drones after 450 of them were sent to Russia in mid-October 2022.^[138] In late January 2023, Russia began supplanting Wagner units with better-trained National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardia) and paratroopers, enabling them to make further advances in the Bakhmut sector.^[139]

The Ukrainian defenders consist of a "hodgepodge of units", consisting initially of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade and the 58th Motorized Brigade, who were later reinforced by many other units—including special forces and territorial defense units—in order to fill in gaps caused by heavy casualties.^{[126][15][45]} Units are also constantly rotated to replenish casualties and prevent combat fatigue.^[64] On 10 January 2023, Polish think tank Rochan Consulting estimated Ukraine may have ten brigades fighting in Bakhmut, or around 30,000 personnel.^[140] Ukrainian commanders have utilized significant resources in Bakhmut, with their strategy being to keep Russia preoccupied with Bakhmut in order to prevent further offensives.^[118] Conversely, The New York Times reported that Ukraine's use of well-trained National Guard and infantry units against poorly-trained Wagner forces was tying down Ukraine's well-trained units and preventing Ukraine from conducting offensives not only in the present but for the future.^[141]

Strategic value

The overall strategic value of Bakhmut has been considered dubious by many analysts, observing that the resources and lives Russia has spent assaulting the city far outweigh its importance.^[142] The UK defence ministry and U.S. National Security Council have both insisted capturing Bakhmut would only be a "symbolic" victory for Russia rather than a strategic one.^[143][144] Some observers noted that Bakhmut is a key regional logistics and transport hub where two roads, the T0504 to Kostiantynivka and T0513 to Siversk, pass through.^[55][145] In response to calls for a Ukrainian tactical retreat from Bakhmut, Zelensky said that to do so would give Russia an "open road" to important cities in Eastern Ukraine.^[146] Ukraine likewise see symbolic value in Bakhmut with Zelensky calling it the "fortress of our morale".^[118]

Jon Roozenbeek, British Academy postdoctoral fellow at the University of Cambridge, observed that securing Bakhmut would put Kramatorsk and Sloviansk within sufficient Russian artillery range. Others have concurred with this analysis.^[147][148] Konrad Muzyka, and expert on Russian security Mark Galeotti, argued that Russia's costly assault is a matter of both preserving prestige and sunk cost fallacy—that Russian forces had already expended so much manpower in the war effort on other fronts that they "may as well do everything they can" to seize the city.^[142]

Retired Ukrainian colonel Serhiy Hrabskyi suggested Wagner Group was seeking glory in capturing Bakhmut, as leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is poised to reap significant monetary and political rewards if Wagner captures the city on behalf of the Russian government.^[13] Prighozhin himself had previously suggested Wagner was deliberately turning Bakhmut into a "meat grinder" to inflict heavy attritional casualties on Ukrainian forces.^[149] One Western official gave an inverse view, saying the battle is "giving Ukraine a unique opportunity to kill a lot of Russians", due to purportedly poor Russian tactics.^[150]

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