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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

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Party Democratic Republican Independent

Incumbent U.S. senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent



The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. Incumbent one-term independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was elected in 2018 as a Democrat with 50% of the vote, succeeding the retiring Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022, but remained in the Democratic caucus.[1]

Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election. U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination.

Discover more about 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona related topics

United States Senate

United States Senate

The United States Senate is the upper chamber of the United States Congress, with the House of Representatives being the lower chamber. Together they compose the national bicameral legislature of the United States.

Arizona

Arizona

Arizona is a state in the Southwestern United States. It is the 6th-largest and the 14th-most-populous of the 50 states. Its capital and largest city is Phoenix. Arizona is part of the Four Corners region with Utah to the north, Colorado to the northeast, and New Mexico to the east; its other neighboring states are Nevada to the northwest, California to the west and the Mexican states of Sonora and Baja California to the south and southwest.

Independent politician

Independent politician

An independent or non-partisan politician is a politician not affiliated with any political party or bureaucratic association. There are numerous reasons why someone may stand for office as an independent.

Kyrsten Sinema

Kyrsten Sinema

Kyrsten Lea Sinema is an American politician and former social worker serving as the senior United States senator from Arizona, a seat she has held since 2019. A former member of the Democratic Party, Sinema became an independent in December 2022 but still caucuses with the Democratic Party. She served three terms as a state representative for the 15th legislative district from 2005 to 2011, one term as the state senator for the 15th legislative district from 2011 to 2012, and three terms as the United States representative for the 9th district from 2013 to 2019.

2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona and replace incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake, who did not run for reelection to a second term. It was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various other state and local elections.

Democratic Party (United States)

Democratic Party (United States)

The Democratic Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States. Founded in 1828, it was predominantly built by Martin Van Buren, who assembled a wide cadre of politicians in every state behind war hero Andrew Jackson, making it the world's oldest active political party. Its main political rival has been the Republican Party since the 1850s. The party is a big tent, and is less ideologically uniform than the Republican Party due to the broader list of unique voting blocs that compose it, though modern liberalism is the majority ideology in the party.

Jeff Flake

Jeff Flake

Jeffry Lane Flake is an American politician and diplomat who is the current U.S Ambassador to Turkey. A member of the Republican Party, Flake served in the United States House of Representatives from 2001 to 2013 and in the United States Senate from 2013 to 2019, representing Arizona. He was nominated by Democratic president Joe Biden and confirmed by the Senate for his ambassador post on October 26, 2021. He presented his credentials to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the Presidential Complex of Republic of Turkey in Ankara on January 26, 2022.

Congressional caucus

Congressional caucus

A congressional caucus is a group of members of the United States Congress that meet to pursue common legislative objectives. Formally, caucuses are formed as congressional member organizations (CMOs) through the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate and governed under the rules of these chambers. In addition to the term "caucus", they are sometimes called conferences, coalitions, study groups, task forces, or working groups. Many other countries use the term parliamentary group; the Parliament of the United Kingdom has many all-party parliamentary groups.

Ruben Gallego

Ruben Gallego

Rubén Marinelarena Gallego is an American politician and U.S. Marine combat veteran, having served and deployed as a USMCR Corporal during Operation Iraqi Freedom, who is the U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district. A Democrat, he previously served as a member of the Arizona House of Representatives, serving as assistant minority leader from 2012 until he resigned to run for Congress. Gallego was elected to Congress in 2014. His district includes most of southern, western, and downtown Phoenix, along with a portion of Glendale. He served as the national chair of Eric Swalwell's 2020 presidential campaign.

Independents

Candidates

Filed paperwork

Democratic primary

Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. The most prominent dispute was over the Build Back Better Act, specifically the provisions concerning lowering prescription drug prices, as well as her opposition to increasing the minimum wage and to filibuster reform. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge the incumbent.[2] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the filibuster in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

During the congressional consideration of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, Sinema did not initially announce support for the bill, doing so only after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision on closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[3] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[4] Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an Independent.[1]

Candidates

Declared

Potential

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kate
Gallego
Ruben
Gallego
Kathy
Hoffman
Regina
Romero
Kyrsten
Sinema
Greg
Stanton
Undecided
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 673 (LV) ± 4.0% 74% 16% 10%
66% 17% 17%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 229 (RV) ± 6.5% 47% 24% 29%
44% 24% 32%
25% 47% 28%
Data for Progress (D)[A] October 8–10, 2021 467 (LV) ± 5.0% 9% 23% 9% 19% 13% 26%
60% 25% 15%
62% 23% 15%
55% 26% 19%
24% 59% 17%

Discover more about Democratic primary related topics

Democratic Party (United States)

Democratic Party (United States)

The Democratic Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States. Founded in 1828, it was predominantly built by Martin Van Buren, who assembled a wide cadre of politicians in every state behind war hero Andrew Jackson, making it the world's oldest active political party. Its main political rival has been the Republican Party since the 1850s. The party is a big tent, and is less ideologically uniform than the Republican Party due to the broader list of unique voting blocs that compose it, though modern liberalism is the majority ideology in the party.

Build Back Better Act

Build Back Better Act

The Build Back Better Act was a bill introduced in the 117th Congress to fulfill aspects of President Joe Biden's Build Back Better Plan. It was spun off from the American Jobs Plan, alongside the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, as a $3.5 trillion Democratic reconciliation package that included provisions related to climate change and social policy. Following negotiations, the price was lowered to approximately $2.2 trillion. The bill was passed 220–213 by the House of Representatives on November 19, 2021.

Prescription drug prices in the United States

Prescription drug prices in the United States

Prescription drug list prices in the United States continually rank among the highest in the world. The high cost of prescription drugs became a major topic of discussion in the 21st century, leading up to the American health care reform debate of 2009, and received renewed attention in 2015. One major reason for high prescription drug prices in the United States relative to other countries is the inability of government-granted monopolies in the American health care sector to use their bargaining power to negotiate lower prices and that the American payer ends up subsidizing the world's R&D spending on drugs.

Minimum wage in the United States

Minimum wage in the United States

In the United States, the minimum wage is set by U.S. labor law and a range of state and local laws. The first federal minimum wage was instituted in the National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933, signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, but later found to be unconstitutional. In 1938, the Fair Labor Standards Act established it at $0.25 an hour. Its purchasing power peaked in 1968, at $1.60. Since 2009, it has been $7.25 per hour.

Filibuster

Filibuster

A filibuster is a political procedure in which one or more members of a legislative body prolong debate on proposed legislation so as to delay or entirely prevent decision. It is sometimes referred to as "talking a bill to death" or "talking out a bill", and is characterized as a form of obstruction in a legislature or other decision-making body.

Arizona Democratic Party

Arizona Democratic Party

The Arizona Democratic Party is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the U.S. state of Arizona. Its headquarters are in Phoenix.

Censure

Censure

A censure is an expression of strong disapproval or harsh criticism. In parliamentary procedure, it is a debatable main motion that could be adopted by a majority vote. Among the forms that it can take are a stern rebuke by a legislature, a spiritual penalty imposed by a church, or a negative judgment pronounced on a theological proposition. It is usually non-binding, unlike a motion of no confidence.

John Lewis Voting Rights Act

John Lewis Voting Rights Act

The John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act of 2021 is proposed voting rights legislation named after civil rights activist John Lewis. The bill would restore and strengthen parts of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, most notably its requirement for certain jurisdictions to seek federal approval before enacting certain changes to their voting laws. The bill was written in response to the Supreme Court decision in Shelby County v. Holder in 2013, which struck down the system that was used to determine which jurisdictions were subject to that requirement.

Carried interest

Carried interest

Carried interest, or carry, in finance, is a share of the profits of an investment paid to the investment manager specifically in alternative investments. It is a performance fee, rewarding the manager for enhancing performance. Since these fees are generally not taxed as normal income, some believe that the structure unfairly takes advantage of favorable tax treatment, e.g. in the United States.

Hedge fund

Hedge fund

A hedge fund is a pooled investment fund that trades in relatively liquid assets and is able to make extensive use of more complex trading, portfolio-construction, and risk management techniques in an attempt to improve performance, such as short selling, leverage, and derivatives. Financial regulators generally restrict hedge fund marketing to institutional investors, high net worth individuals, and accredited investors.

Arizona's 3rd congressional district

Arizona's 3rd congressional district

Arizona's 3rd congressional district is a congressional district that includes most of southern, western, and downtown Phoenix, along with a portion of Glendale. It is currently represented by Democrat Ruben Gallego.

Paul Penzone

Paul Penzone

Paul Penzone is an American law enforcement officer. He is the sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, United States. Penzone was elected sheriff in 2016, defeating longtime incumbent Joe Arpaio. Penzone is a former sergeant in the Phoenix Police Department.

Republican primary

Former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey was considered a potential candidate, but said he would not run.[12] He would likely have faced a contested primary election due to former President Donald Trump's repeated criticism of him for refusing to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Pro-Trump contenders include congressmen Andy Biggs and David Schweikert,[13] as well as Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who has reportedly been encouraged to run by 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.[14]

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Discover more about Republican primary related topics

Doug Ducey

Doug Ducey

Douglas Anthony Ducey is an American businessman and politician who served as the 23rd governor of Arizona from 2015 to 2023. A member of the Republican Party, Ducey was previously the CEO of Cold Stone Creamery, a chain of ice cream parlors.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump

Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President Donald Trump of Florida and his running mate, incumbent Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic challenger and former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware and his running mate, United States Senator Kamala Harris of California. The Libertarian nominees were also on the ballot.

Andy Biggs

Andy Biggs

Andrew Steven Biggs is an American attorney and politician who represents Arizona's 5th congressional district the United States House of Representatives. The district, which was once represented by U.S. Senators John McCain and Jeff Flake, is in the heart of the East Valley and includes most of Mesa and Chandler and all of Queen Creek and Biggs's hometown of Gilbert.

David Schweikert

David Schweikert

David S. Schweikert is an American politician and businessman serving as the U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district from 2013 to 2023 and Arizona's 1st congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he first entered Congress in 2011, representing Arizona's 5th congressional district until redistricting. His district includes most of northern Phoenix as well as Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Cave Creek.

2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election occurred on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Arizona concurrently with other federal and state elections. Incumbent Republican governor Doug Ducey was term-limited and ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. Democratic Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs won the election against Republican former television anchor Kari Lake.

Kari Lake

Kari Lake

Kari Ann Lake is an American former television news anchor who was the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election.

Mark Lamb (sheriff)

Mark Lamb (sheriff)

Mark Lamb is an American sheriff. He was elected Sheriff of Pinal County, Arizona in 2017.

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

Blake Masters

Blake Masters

Blake Gates Masters is an American venture capitalist and political candidate. Frequently referred to as a protégé of businessman Peter Thiel, Masters co-wrote Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future with Thiel in 2014, based on notes Masters had taken at Stanford Law School in 2012. He was later chief operating officer of Thiel's investment firm, Thiel Capital, and also president of the Thiel Foundation.

Karrin Taylor Robson

Karrin Taylor Robson

Karrin Margaret Taylor Robson is an American lawyer, land use consultant, and Republican Party politician from Arizona. Taylor Robson was a member of the Arizona Board of Regents from 2017 until 2021; she was appointed to the post by Arizona Governor Doug Ducey.

Arizona Board of Regents

Arizona Board of Regents

The Arizona Board of Regents (ABOR) is the governing body of Arizona's public university system. It provides policy guidance to Arizona State University, Northern Arizona University, the University of Arizona, and their branch campuses.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[21] Battleground January 6, 2023
The Cook Political Report[22] Tossup January 24, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Tossup January 24, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 32% 36% 14% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] December 21, 2022 650 (V) ± 3.8% 40% 41% 13% 6%
48% 47% 5%
42% 39% 19%

Source: "2024 United States Senate election in Arizona", Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, (2023, January 28th), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Arizona.

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Notes
  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ This district was numbered as the 1st district from 1995 to 2001.
  3. ^ This district was numbered as the 5th district during Schweikert's first term and as the 6th district from then until the 2020 redistricting cycle.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Ruben Gallego
References
  1. ^ a b c Bowman, Bridget (December 15, 2022). "Sinema files campaign papers but re-election decision unclear". MSN. Retrieved December 15, 2022.
  2. ^ "Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024". October 14, 2021.
  3. ^ "Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats' big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage". CNBC. August 4, 2022. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  4. ^ Kupar, Sahil. "Sinema faces conflicting pressures in Arizona on Democrats' big agenda bill". NBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
  5. ^ Lah, Kate Sullivan,Kyung (January 23, 2023). "Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announces Senate bid in challenge to Kyrsten Sinema". CNN. Retrieved January 23, 2023.
  6. ^ Ulloa, Jazmine (January 23, 2023). "Democrat in Arizona Will Seek Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 23, 2023.
  7. ^ "Gallego bid kicks off potentially crowded Arizona Senate race". January 23, 2023.
  8. ^ "How Kyrsten Sinema's decision to leave the Democratic Party will change the Senate". December 9, 2022.
  9. ^ "Democrats Are Ready to Call Kyrsten Sinema's Bluff". December 13, 2022.
  10. ^ "Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race".
  11. ^ "Greg Stanton said he will not run for Arizona's Senate seat in 2024. All eyes are now on Ruben Gallego and Kyrsten Sinema". www.politico.com. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  12. ^ a b "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
  13. ^ a b c Ferris, Sarah; Allison, Natalie (December 9, 2022). "Sinema party switch jumpstarts Arizona's 2024 Senate battle". POLITICO.
  14. ^ Kapur, Sahil (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's decision to quit the Democratic Party jolts Arizona 2024 Senate race". NBC News.
  15. ^ a b c Goodwin, Liz; Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (January 18, 2023). "2024 Senate map is a GOP dream. But candidate strength is unsettled".
  16. ^ "Eyes on 2024: Arizona Senate race shaping up". January 20, 2023.
  17. ^ a b c d Duda, Jeremy (December 12, 2022). "Sinema's switch alters electoral math for GOP and Democrats in 2024". Axios.
  18. ^ Carter, Simone (December 22, 2022). "Kari Lake Could Win in Arizona Senate Race, New Poll Shows". Newsweek.
  19. ^ Otterbein, Holly (January 5, 2023). "Gallego builds political team ahead of Sinema showdown". Politico.
  20. ^ Drucker, David (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's switch upends 2024 Arizona Senate race". Washington Examiner.
  21. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  22. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  23. ^ Kondik, Kyle. "Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved January 25, 2023.
External links
Official campaign websites

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