2022–23 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
2022–23 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season | |
---|---|
![]() Season summary map | |
Seasonal boundaries | |
First system formed | 23 September 2022 |
Last system dissipated | Season ongoing |
Strongest storm | |
Name | Darian |
• Maximum winds | 220 km/h (140 mph) (10-minute sustained) |
• Lowest pressure | 920 hPa (mbar) |
Seasonal statistics | |
Total disturbances | 5 |
Total depressions | 5 |
Total storms | 4 |
Tropical cyclones | 2 |
Intense tropical cyclones | 1 |
Very intense tropical cyclones | 1 |
Total fatalities | 8 |
Total damage | Unknown |
Related articles | |
The 2022–23 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season is an ongoing event of the annual cycle of tropical cyclone and subtropical cyclone formation. It began on 15 November 2022, and will end on 30 April 2023, with the exception for Mauritius and the Seychelles, for which it will end on 15 May 2023. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical and subtropical cyclones form in the basin, which is west of 90°E and south of the Equator. However, tropical cyclones can form year-round, and all tropical cyclones that will form between 1 July 2022 and 30 June 2023 will be part of the season. Tropical and subtropical cyclones in this basin are monitored by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in Réunion and unofficially by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (as for American interests).
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Seasonal forecasts
Forecast Center |
Systems | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mauritius Meteorological Services | 11–9 tropical cyclones | |||
Météo-France | 6–10 tropical cyclones | |||
Forecast Center |
Chance of above average | |||
Météo-France | 30% | 60% | 10% | |
Source: Seasonal Outlook for Tropical Cyclones.[1][2] |
In October 2022, Météo-France issued its seasonal forecast of cyclone activity for the basin. The MFR predicted a season that was slightly below average to average, citing the effects of a La Niña event. The MFR placed chances of a below-average season at 60%. Average cyclone activity was given a 30% chance, and an above-average level of activity was given a 10% chance. The season in the South-West Indian Ocean was expected to be above average, with 6-10 tropical cyclones or moderate tropical storm.[2]
The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) released their summer 2022–23 outlooks. An average season, with around eleven to nine cyclones forming, was expected.[1] The MMS also indicates that the eastern part of the basin is more conducive to cyclone formation in the second half of summer, and the western part of the basin will also become favorable for storm formation during the second half.[1]
Seasonal summary

The season began early, with a weak tropical low being produced on 22 September.[3] Improving conditions over the next three days allowed the development of the system, which strengthened into Moderate Tropical Storm Ashley on 27 September.[4][5] The system slowly moved westward and weakened into a remnant low on 30 September.[6] Pre-season activity continued, with a disturbance being produced as a result of a westerly wind burst.[7][8] Another storm formed on 6 October, and was named Balita on 8 October.[9] In November 2022, Tropical Low 02U (reclassified the system as Tropical Depression 03) entered the basin and degenerated into a remnant low by the next day.[10][11] In December, Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian (classified as a very intense tropical cyclone) entered the basin, before gradually weakening.[12] In January, a new disturbance which became a tropical depression formed which later became Severe Tropical Storm Cheneso and made landfall over Madagascar on 19 January.[13]
Systems
Moderate Tropical Storm Ashley
On 22 September, a near-equatorial trough produced a weak tropical low in the Indian Ocean, initially expected by MFR to not form due to upper wind shear.[3] Environmental conditions improved over the next 3 days,[4] and the low organized enough to become the first tropical depression of the season by 26 September.[14] Early the next day, the JTWC subsequently designated the storm as Tropical Cyclone 02S, citing a scatterometer pass indicating tropical storm-force winds in its western and eastern semicircles.[15] The MFR also upgraded the system into a moderate tropical storm, and the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) named it Ashley.[16][5] The system then reached peak intensity, with 10-minute sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph),[5] before succumbing to strong northeasterly shear and significant dry air intrusions late on the same day, prompting the JTWC to issue their final advisory on Ashley.[17] The MFR terminated advisories by 06:00 UTC on 28 September as Ashley weakened into a remnant low,[6] but continued to track the storm until it was last noted on 30 September as a dissipating low.[18]
Moderate Tropical Storm Balita
On 2 October, the MFR began to monitor a disturbance associated with the convergence of the westerly wind burst.[7] However, convective activity was located in the low-level convergences.[19] Later the next day, the JTWC began monitoring an area of convection.[20] Satellite images indicated that the low-level cloud lines wrapping into the low-level center.[21] Early on 5 October, the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on the system.[22] The JTWC subsequently initiated advisories on the system and classified it as Tropical Cyclone 03S at 03:00 UTC on 6 October.[23] By 06:00 UTC, the MFR upgraded it to a tropical depression.[24] An ASCAT pass featured below gale-force winds on its southern quadrant.[25] Despite moderate northeasterly wind shear, convection increased around the system.[26]
The MFR further upgraded it to a moderate tropical storm at 00:00 UTC on 8 October with the name Balita from the MMS.[27][9] Microwave imagery revealed that Balita had improved its convective structure.[28] At 06:00 UTC on October 9, Balita's structure became elongated and asymmetrical, prompting MFR to reclassify the storm as a post-tropical depression.[29][30] Later that same day, the MFR ceased advisories, and the JTWC followed suit.[31] The remnants fully dissipated on 13 October.[32]
Tropical Depression 03
On 5 November, Tropical Low 02U that was being monitored by the MFR crossed into the South-West Indian Ocean basin from the Australian region.[10] At the time, there was no more convection associated, only a low-level vortex.[10] Thunderstorm activity has resumed in the southern part of the system in the last few hours.[10] Upon entering the basin, the JTWC ceased advisories by 09:00 UTC that day.[33] The MFR's reclassified the system as Tropical Depression 03.[11] Environmental conditions were assessed as being marginally conducive for tropical cyclogenesis, with low vertical wind shear and moderate equatorial outflow.[34] At 06:00 UTC on 6 November, the MFR's issued their last warning as the system degenerated into a remnant low.[8]
Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Darian
On 21 December, Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian moved into the basin from the Australian region, and was immediately classified as a very intense tropical cyclone by MFR.[12] Darian exhibited a highly symmetrical cloud structure around a well-defined eye.[35] Shortly afterward, Darian's cloud pattern deteriorated and its eye started to become less defined, causing the cyclone to weaken to an intense tropical cyclone status by 18:00 UTC.[36] Darian weakened to a Category 3-equivalent cyclone the next day, as the convective cloud tops had warmed slightly.[37] Darian's then weakened due to strong wind shear, and was downgraded into a tropical cyclone status.[38] With a well-defined eye and impressive appearance on satellite imagery, Darian re-intensified, reaching 10-minute maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph) around 06:00 UTC on 23 December.[39] The cyclone was highly compact, with a distinct eye surrounded by cold cloud tops.[40] Around the same time, the JTWC's also assessed Darian as having 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 240 km/h (150 mph), making the storm a Category 4-equivalent cyclone again on the Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS).[41] Darian became quasi-stationary due to the presence of two main flows.[42] The cyclone's eye can be seen from satellite imagery, and its cloud tops warmed to −99 to −108 °F (−73 to −78 °C).[43] Steady weakening occurred thereafter as it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle.[44]
Multispectral animated satellite imagery revealed a 8 nautical miles (15 km; 9.2 mi) surrounded eye around deep convection as a result, the cyclone weakened to Category 2-equivalent cyclone.[45] Further weakening occurred as the MFR assessed that Darian's winds bottomed out at 155 km/h (100 mph).[46] At 03:00 UTC on 26 December, the JTWC reported that Darian had re-strengthened to 205 km/h (125 mph) with a warm 14 °F (−10 °C), a wide eye 25 nautical miles (46 km; 29 mi), and was surrounded by cold, −98 to −116 °F (−72 to −82 °C) cloud tops.[47] Using the Dvorak technique, MFR estimated winds of 185 km/h (115 mph).[48][49] Due to moderate east-northeasterly vertical wind shear, Darian fell to 155 km/h (100 mph) winds, according to MFR.[50] Just six hours later, the eye feature persisted, consisting of a warm area within the cooling eyewall.[51] At 15:00 UTC on 27 December, the JTWC further downgraded it to a Category 1-equivalent cyclone.[52] Satellite imagery showed that the cloud pattern began to rapidly deteriorate, and MFR followed suit and declared it a severe tropical storm status.[53] The JTWC also reported that Darian's weakened into a tropical storm.[54] By 00:00 UTC on 29 December, Darian weakened into a moderate tropical storm status, after the convection diminished around the center.[55] MFR issued its last advisory on the storm on 30 December as it transitioned into a post-tropical depression.[56] The JTWC also discontinued warnings on the system around 03:00 UTC on 31 December.[57]
Tropical Cyclone Cheneso
On 10 January, the MFR began highlighting the potential for tropical cyclone development in their daily bulletins, noting an increase in shower activity south of Diego Garcia.[58] By January 13, the JTWC had also began monitoring an area of convection, citing an exposed low-level center with convection.[59] The disturbance was located in a favorable environment for intensification, as well as warm sea surface temperatures, low to high vertical wind shear.[60] Despite this, the MFR initiated advisories for the zone of disturbed weather while the JTWC issued a TCFA on 17 January.[61][62] Six hours later, the MFR upgraded the system to a tropical disturbance status.[63] Similarly, the JTWC's began issuing warnings on the system, classifying it as Tropical Cyclone 08S.[64] Deep convection wrapping into the curved band pattern, prompting the MFR to upgrade it to a tropical depression status.[65] At 12:00 UTC on 18 January, the MFR also upgraded the system into a moderate tropical storm status, and the Météo Madagascar named it Cheneso.[13] Soon afterwards, Cheneso intensified further into a severe tropical storm status.[66] Satellite imagery showed that a central dense overcast (CDO) was obscuring the low-level circulation center (LLCC).[67] Cheneso continued moving westward, and by the next day, it had made landfall over northern Madagascar; the JTWC released its final warning on the storm.[68] By 18:00 UTC, MFR declared that Cheneso had degenerated into an overland depression.[69] Due to uncertainty in predicting the storm's track, the MFR temporarily ceased issuing advisories on 20 January.[70]
During 21 January, as the system began to emerge into the Mozambique Channel, the JTWC resumed monitoring and stated the system had the potential to re-develop.[71][72] The LLCC started to get consolidated with deep convective bands wrapping into it.[73] As a result, the MFR subsequently initiated advisories again on 23 January.[74] Cheneso gained tropical disturbance status yet again, however the system lacked deep convection near its center.[75] By 14:00 UTC that day, the JTWC re-issued a TCFA, and it re-upgraded the system to a tropical storm.[76][77] Cheneso resumed its organizing trend soon afterward, and at 00:00 UTC on 24 January, the MFR upgraded the system to a tropical depression status.[78] Six hours later, convection increased near the center, and the storm was upgraded to moderate tropical storm status.[79] The storm's continued to organize with an intense CDO forming along with an eye, and Cheneso strengthened to severe tropical storm status.[80][81] By 03:00 UTC on 25 January, Cheneso strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone on the SSHWS, as it neared the coast of Madagascar.[82] The cyclone strengthened further with a defined curved pattern, marking its intensification into a tropical cyclone status.[83] By 18:00 UTC, the eye pattern consolidated as the cyclone moved northeast after being stationary for the past 6 hours.[84] Satellite imagery depicted that a tightly-wrapped convective banding was circulating around a cloud-filled eye.[85] Cheneso started to rapidly weaken after its eye quickly collapsed and the cloud tops had warmed.[86] By 12:00 UTC on 26 January, Cheneso was downgraded to severe tropical storm status by the MFR, as it heads in a southeast direction.[87]
The National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) reported 35,000 affected people, 14,400 were displaced.[88][89] At least 8 people were killed on the onslaught of Cheneso and 16 others missing.[90][91] In addition to this, over 10,570 houses were damaged.[92] In Sambava, Madagascar, Cheneso caused 100 mm (3.9 in) of rain.[92] The Météo Madagascar issued a red flood watch for several river basins.[93] The government of Madagascar ordered the temporary closure of schools in order to "prevent further accidents".[90]
Current storm information
As of 06:00 UTC 27 January, Severe Tropical Storm Cheneso is located within 20 nautical miles of 21°36′S 41°54′E / 21.6°S 41.9°E or about 1,380 km (860 mi) west of Réunion and about 1,030 km (640 mi) south-southwest of Mayotte. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 50 knots (95 km/h; 60 mph), with gusts up to 70 knots (130 km/h; 80 mph) while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 65 knots (120 km/h; 75 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure is 982 hPa (29.00 inHg), and the system is moving southwest at 5 kn (9.3 km/h; 5.8 mph).
For the latest official information, see:
- MFR's Tropical Cyclone Bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Cheneso (05)
- JTWC'S Tropical Cyclone Warning on Tropical Cyclone 08S (Cheneso)
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Storm names
Within the South-West Indian Ocean, tropical depressions and subtropical depressions that are judged to have 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 65 km/h (40 mph) by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center on Réunion island, France (RSMC La Réunion) are usually assigned a name. However, it is the Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centers in Mauritius and Madagascar who name the systems. The Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Center (Mauritius Meteorological Services) in Mauritius names a storm should it intensify into a moderate tropical storm between 55°E and 90°E. If instead a cyclone intensifies into a moderate tropical storm between 30°E and 55°E then the Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Center (Meteo Madagascar) in Madagascar assigns the appropriate name to the storm. Storm names are taken from three pre-determined lists of names, which rotate on a triennial basis, with any names that have been used automatically removed. Therefore, all storm names used this year will be removed from the rotation and replaced with a new name for the 2025–26 season, while the unused names will remain on the list.[94] New names this season are: Ashley, Balita, Cheneso, Dingani, Enali, Fabien, Gezani, Horacio, Indusa and Juluka. They replaced Ambali, Belna, Calvinia, Diane, Esami, Francisco, Gabekile, Herold, Irondro and Jeruto during the 2019–20 season.[94]
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If a tropical cyclone enters the South-West Indian basin from the Australian region basin (west of 90°E), it will retain the name assigned to it by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). The following storms were named in this manner.[95]
- Darian
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Season effects
This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2022–2023 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from RSMC La Réunion. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2022 or 2023 USD.
Name | Dates | Peak intensity | Areas affected | Damage (USD) |
Deaths | Refs | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Wind speed | Pressure | ||||||
Ashley | 23 – 28 September | Moderate tropical storm | 75 km/h (45 mph) | 1000 hPa (29.53 inHg) | None | None | None | |
Balita | 3 – 9 October | Moderate tropical storm | 65 km/h (40 mph) | 996 hPa (29.41 inHg) | None | None | None | |
03 | 5 – 6 November | Tropical depression | 55 km/h (35 mph) | 1008 hPa (29.77 inHg) | None | None | None | |
Darian | 21 – 30 December | Very intense tropical cyclone | 220 km/h (140 mph) | 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) | None | None | None | |
Cheneso | 16 January – Present | Tropical cyclone | 150 km/h (90 mph) | 959 hPa (28.32 inHg) | Madagascar | Unknown | 8 | [90] |
Season aggregates | ||||||||
5 systems | 23 September 2022 – Season ongoing | 220 km/h (140 mph) | 920 hPa (27.17 inHg) | Unknown | 8 |
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Source: "2022–23 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season", Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, (2023, January 27th), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022–23_South-West_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season.
Further Reading

2001–02 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

2008–09 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

2010–11 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

Tropical Storm Cyprien

1982–83 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

2012–13 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

2014–15 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

Cyclone Haruna

Cyclone Fantala

2016–17 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

Cyclone Ava

2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

Tropical Storm Eliakim

2021–22 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

Cyclone Felleng

Tropical Storm Ana (2022)

Cyclone Batsirai

Cyclone Gombe
See also
- Weather of 2022 and 2023
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Tropical cyclones in 2022 and 2023
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2022, 2023
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2022, 2023
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2022, 2023
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2022, 2023
- 2022–23 Australian region cyclone season
- 2022–23 South Pacific cyclone season
References
- ^ a b c "Summer 2022–2023 Outlook for Mauritius and Rodrigues". Mauritius Meteorological Services. 29 October 2022. Archived from the original on 29 October 2022. Retrieved 29 October 2022.
- ^ a b "Prévision saisonnière d'activité cyclonique dans le Sud-Ouest de l'océan Indien Saison 2022-2023" [Seasonal forecast of hurricane activity in the South West Indian Ocean Season 2022-2023]. Météo-France. 22 October 2022. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 7 November 2022.
- ^ a b Bulletin for Cyclonic Activity and Significant Tropical Weather in the Southwest Indian Ocean (PDF) (Report). Météo-France. 22 September 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 26 September 2022. Retrieved 26 September 2022.
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- ^ a b c Moderate Tropical Storm 01 (Ashley) Warning Number (2/1/20222023) (PDF) (Report). Météo-France. 27 September 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 September 2022. Retrieved 27 September 2022.
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{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ Tropical cyclone names (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Archived from the original on 26 December 2022. Retrieved 26 December 2022.
External links

Categories
- 2022–23 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- Articles with French-language sources (fr)
- Articles with short description
- CS1 maint: url-status
- Commons category link from Wikidata
- Pages using the EasyTimeline extension
- Short description is different from Wikidata
- South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons
- Use dmy dates from October 2022
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