2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma

2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma
	Country results ; Lankford: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%
U.S. senator before election; Tom Coburn; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; James Lankford; Republican

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The 2014 United States Senate special election in Oklahoma took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oklahoma, concurrently with the regularly-scheduled election to Oklahoma's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

This special election was held to fill the remaining two years of incumbent Republican Senator Tom Coburn's second term. Coburn, a strong supporter of term limits, had announced even before he was elected to the Senate in 2004 that he would only serve for two terms. After he was re-elected in 2010, he reaffirmed that he would not run for re-election in 2016.^[1]^[2]

In January 2014, Coburn announced he would resign early at the end of the 113th United States Congress on January 3, 2015.^[3]^[4] As pursuant to Oklahoma law, he submitted an "irrevocable letter of resignation" to take effect on that day. Thus, the special election was held while he was still in office.^[5]^[6]

Unlike most states, except in very specific circumstances,^[a] Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin did not have the power to appoint a replacement senator. Instead, state law required her to schedule the special election "as soon as practicable".^[8]

Primary elections were held on June 24, 2014. The Republicans nominated U.S. Representative James Lankford; as no candidate in the Democratic primary received more than 50% of the vote, a primary runoff election was held on August 26 between State Senator Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers, which Johnson won. In the general election, Lankford defeated Johnson in a landslide and was sworn in on the day Coburn's resignation took effect. Lankford easily won re-election to a full six-year term in 2016.

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Republican primary

By April 2014, Lankford and T.W. Shannon were seen as the main contenders for the Republican nomination, with Brogdon a potential spoiler who was running even further to the right than they did. Although there was reported to be "little daylight ideologically" between Lankford and Shannon, and both are associated with the Tea Party movement, Shannon attracted the support of figures including Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and Sarah Palin and organizations including FreedomWorks and the Senate Conservatives Fund. They criticized Lankford for his votes to raise the debt ceiling and for being a member of the Republican House leadership. Supporters of Lankford, including the chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party, pointed out Shannon's ties to the establishment-supporting Congressman Tom Cole, accused Cruz, Lee, Palin and the others of being "outsiders" who were attempting to meddle in the state's primary, and also pointed out that the aforementioned had previously criticized Coburn, whom they were now praising in an attempt to woo him into supporting Shannon.^[9] Local Tea Party groups also criticised the national conservatives, saying in an open letter that they had endorsed Shannon without consulting them or examining his record, that Shannon was a "poser" who "had never stepped foot" in a Tea Party meeting before announcing his run for the Senate and "no longer attends grassroots meetings nor does he seek the grassroots support".^[10]

In June, Coburn responded to attack ads calling Lankford a "Washington insider" who "votes with liberals" by saying that "political advertisements by groups... supporting T.W. Shannon have crossed an important line — they simply aren't truthful and they mischaracterize James Lankford's service in Congress." He also called Lankford "a man of absolute integrity" who was "one of the most honest, thoughtful and sincere men I have met in my time in Washington." He also praised Lankford's "life experience", "perspective" and willingness to fight the "status quo", but stopped short of fully endorsing him. He did however say that "as a voter", the negative ads from pro-Shannon groups made him question Shannon's ability to govern.^[11]

By mid-June, Lankford was considered to have the momentum, a reversal of fortunes, though a runoff was considered likely.^[12] Shannon's negative advertisements were considered to have backfired, in contrast to Lankford's advertisements, which were largely positive. Lankford also raised and spent more money than Shannon, who was not significantly helped financially by national conservative groups, who had focused their attention on the primary runoff in Mississippi between incumbent senator Thad Cochran and conservative challenger Chris McDaniel. The runoff in Mississippi was held on the same day as the primary in Oklahoma and Alexandra Jaffe of The Hill reported that Shannon's best hope was to force a runoff, which would allow the national groups to refocus on Oklahoma.^[13] Outside spending for Shannon was $1.8m compared to $170,000 for Lankford but Lankford spent $1.8m to Shannon's $1.1m.^[14]

In what was considered a surprise result, Lankford defeated Shannon by over 20%, negating the need for a runoff. Lankford ran a strong, well-organised campaign, considered by Congressman Tom Cole to be "probably the best organization in the state that was operating at this time". He was also helped by his "existing statewide presence grounded in the state's burgeoning Baptist community", which goes back to his time before politics when he ran the Falls Creek Baptist Youth Camp,^[15] and the fact that his congressional district is based in Oklahoma City, where turnout was predicted to be high because there was also a competitive race in the Republican primary to succeed him. To attempt to counteract that, Shannon targeted the media market in Tulsa.^[12]^[14] Finally, unlike in other races, there was no split between the establishment and the Tea Party, with Shannon not capitalising on an "anti-establishment" wave that benefited others like Ben Sasse in Nebraska. Cole summarised: "We don't need people coming in and telling us who conservatives are, [because] everybody is a conservative. There are no moderates."^[14] State Senator David Holt, who supported Shannon, said that Coburn's comments about Lankford were the most important factor, saying that "Senator Coburn is enormously respected in Oklahoma, and when it appeared that he had a preference, I think that the voters listened."^[14]

Candidates

Declared

Randy Brogdon, former state senator and candidate for Governor in 2010^[16]
Andy Craig, Army Veteran and sales professional^[17]
Kevin Crow, college professor^[18]
James Lankford, U.S. Representative^[19]
Eric McCray, businessman^[20]
T. W. Shannon, state representative and former Speaker of the Oklahoma House of Representatives^[21]
Jason Weger, paramedic^[22]

Declined

Jim Bridenstine, U.S. Representative^[23]
Tom Cole, U.S. Representative^[24]
Patrice Douglas, State Corporation Commissioner and former mayor of Edmond (running for OK-05)^[23]^[25]
Mary Fallin, Governor of Oklahoma^[26]
Frank Keating, former governor of Oklahoma^[27]
Todd Lamb, Lieutenant Governor of Oklahoma^[28]
Frank Lucas, U.S. Representative^[29]^[30]
Markwayne Mullin, U.S. Representative^[31]
Scott Pruitt, Attorney General of Oklahoma^[24]
J. C. Watts, former U.S. Representative^[26]

Endorsements

Randy Brogdon

Organizations

James Lankford

Individuals

Trey Gowdy, United States Representative from South Carolina^[34]
Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and candidate for President in 2008^[35]
Darrell Issa, United States Representative from California^[36]

State Legislators^[37]

Senator Rick Brinkley
Senator Mike Mazzei
Senator Dan Newberry
Senator Gary Stanislawski

T.W. Shannon

Individuals

Ben Carson, surgeon and speaker^[38]
Ted Cruz, United States Senator from Texas^[39]
Mike Lee, United States Senator from Utah^[40]
Mark Levin, conservative radio host, author, and constitutional scholar
Ken Miller, Oklahoma State Treasurer^[41]
Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee^[42]
J. C. Watts, former U.S. Representative (OK-04)

Organizations

State Legislators^[49]

Representative Don Armes
Representative John Bennett
Representative Gus Blackwell
Representative David Brumbaugh
Representative Dennis Casey
Representative Mike Christian
Representative Bobby Cleveland
Representative Ann Coody
Representative Lee Denney
Representative David Derby
Representative Jon Echols
Representative Katie Henke
Senator David Holt
Representative Arthur Hulbert
Representative Mike Jackson
Representative Dennis Johnson
Senator Rob Johnson
Representative Charlie Joiner
Representative Dan Kirby
Senator Kyle Loveless
Representative Scott Martin
Representative Steve Martin
Representative Charles McCall
Representative Mark McCullough
Representative Randy McDaniel
Representative Skye McNiel
Representative Lewis Moore
Representative Jason Murphey
Representative Tom Newell
Representative Jadine Nollan
Representative Terry O'Donnell
Representative Leslie Osborn
Representative Pat Ownbey
Representative Pam Peterson
Representative Marty Quinn
Representative Dustin Roberts
Representative Todd Russ
Representative Mike Sanders
Representative Colby Schwartz
Representative Earl Sears
Senator Ralph Shortey
Representative Jason Smalley
Representative Aaron Stiles
Representative Todd Thomsen
Representative John Trebilcock
Representative Steve Vaughan
Representative Ken Walker
Representative Weldon Watson
Representative Paul Wesselhoft
Representative Justin Wood
Representative Harold Wright

Declined to endorse

Jim Bridenstine, U.S. Representative (OK-01)^[9]
Tom Coburn, incumbent U.S. Senator^[9]
Tom Cole, U.S. Representative (OK-04)^[9]
Mary Fallin, Governor of Oklahoma^[9]
Jim Inhofe, U.S. Senator (OK)^[9]
Frank Lucas, U.S. Representative (OK-03)^[9]
Markwayne Mullin, U.S. Representative (OK-02)^[9]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Randy Brogdon	Andy Craig	Kevin Crow	James Lankford	Eric McCray	T.W. Shannon	J. C. Watts	Jason Weger	Other	Undecided
Harper Polling Archived February 13, 2014, at the Wayback Machine	January 30 – February 1, 2014	627	± 3.91%	—	—	—	37%	—	8%	40%	2%	—	13%
	January 30 – February 1, 2014	627	± 3.91%	—	—	—	54%	—	18%	—	1%	—	27%
Tarrance Group*	February 10–12, 2014	500	± 4.9%	—	—	3%	47%	—	17%	—	—	—	33%
Public Opinion Strategies	February 9–11, 2014	?	± ?	—	—	—	51%	—	16%	—	—	1%	32%
Public Opinion Strategies	March 16–17, 2014	500	± 4.38%	7%	—	—	37%	—	28%	—	—	3%	25%
Public Opinion Strategies	April 21–22, 2014	500	± 4.48%	7%	—	—	32%	—	42%	—	—	3%	16%
NSON Opinion Strategy	April 23–29, 2014	400	± ?	3.5%	1%	0.3%	30.8%	—	32%	—	—	1.0%	32.5%
American Viewpoint	April 27–29, 2014	?	± ?	—	—	—	36%	—	34%	—	—	?	?
SoonerPoll	May 5–10, 2014	580	± 4.07%	4.5%	0.6%	1.7%	33.8%	0.6%	31.9%	—	1.5%	—	25.4%
Tarrance Group*	May 12–14, 2014	501	± 4.5%	5%	—	—	43%	—	33%	—	—	—	18%
American Viewpoint	May 27–29, 2014	500	± 4.4%	4%	—	—	48%	—	26%	—	—	3%	18%
Public Opinion Strategies	June 7–9, 2014	600	± 4.81%	—	—	—	39%	—	37%	—	—	6%	18%
Tarrance Group*	June 9–11, 2014	500	± 4.5%	—	—	—	41%	—	34%	—	—	7%	18%
SoonerPoll	June 14–18, 2014	415	± 4.81%	3%	—	—	41%	—	38%	—	—	2%	16%
SoonerPoll	June 19–21, 2014	840	± 3.38%	4.2%	0.4%	1.4%	43.4%	0.9%	34.9%	—	1.5%	—	13.3%

* Internal poll for James Lankford campaign

Hypothetical runoff polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Randy Brogdon	James Lankford	Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy	April 23–29, 2014	400	± ?	10.2%	50%	39.8%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	James Lankford	T.W. Shannon	Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy	April 23–29, 2014	400	± ?	30.2%	38.2%	31.5%

Results

Republican primary results^[50]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	James Lankford	152,749	57.24%
	Republican	T.W. Shannon	91,854	34.42%
	Republican	Randy Brogdon	12,934	4.85%
	Republican	Kevin Crow	2,828	1.06%
	Republican	Andy Craig	2,427	0.91%
	Republican	Eric McCray	2,272	0.85%
	Republican	Jason Weger	1,794	0.67%
Total votes			266,858	100.00%

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